Stronger El Niño conditions are disrupting Peru’s fishing and farming industries, with experts warning the economic impact could grow in the months ahead.
Hundreds of hungry pelicans are gathering around Peru’s ports and fish markets as warming Pacific waters reduce the fish they rely on. Scientists say the unusual scenes are an early warning of a strengthening El Niño that could hit some of the country’s biggest export industries.
With forecasts pointing to a strong or even super-strong El Niño, concerns are rising over the impact on fishing, agriculture, and economic growth.
KEY DETAILS
Marine biologists say warmer ocean temperatures are driving fish into deeper waters, leaving pelicans struggling to find food. According to Peru’s El Niño monitoring agency ENFEN, sea surface temperatures are currently 2 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal.
Peru’s fishing industry now fears exports could miss this year’s $5 billion target after reaching $4.6 billion in 2025. Industrial fishing activity also dropped 31% during the first five months of 2026, while agriculture posted only 0.4% growth due to higher temperatures.
To prepare for heavy rainfall and weather-related damage, Peru’s Congress approved a $2.8 billion budget increase on July 15 for infrastructure and emergency measures. However, agricultural producers argue those efforts are still insufficient.
Peru exported a record $15.1 billion worth of agricultural products in 2025, but industry group AGAP estimates El Niño could erase nearly $1 billion in expected export revenue this year. The group warns this could become Peru’s worst El Niño event in 50 years.
MARKET REACTION
A weaker outlook for Peru’s fishing and agricultural exports could affect commodity markets, particularly fishmeal and agricultural products. Investors will also watch for any impact on copper production, given Peru’s role as the world's third-largest producer.
WHY IT MATTERS
Extreme weather can disrupt supply chains, influence commodity prices, and increase market volatility. Traders should closely monitor El Niño developments as they could affect several global markets.
Weather forecasts, ocean temperatures, and upcoming export data will be key indicators of how severe the economic impact becomes. Businesses and investors will be watching closely as Peru enters its main growing season.
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Source: Reuters
Time: 10:30 AM EEST
