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Markets Get a Breather as Oil Falls, but the Next Risk Is Building

At a Glance

  • Brent slips to $103.50 after jumping more than 4% on Thursday.

  • Global stocks edge higher as Trump rules out a US attack on Iran before November’s midterm elections.

  • AI fundraising plans raise fresh questions about borrowing costs and future profits.

  • French bond pressure eases, while gold climbs above $4,190.

Oil Retreat Offers Relief as Markets Brace for Fresh Risks

Oil prices eased, and global stocks recovered modestly on Friday after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections. Yet concerns over AI spending, expensive borrowing and France’s finances kept investors cautious.

Key Details

Brent crude futures fell to $103.50 a barrel after surging more than 4% in the previous session. European shares opened higher, while US stock futures pointed to gains. Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5%, although the index remained on track for a weekly loss of around 0.7%.

AI-related stocks remained under pressure following concerns about OpenAI’s revenue outlook. Reuters reported that its annualised September revenue was almost $50 billion, below earlier signals, while Bloomberg reported the company could reach or exceed $70 billion by year-end.

Meanwhile, SpaceX, Broadcom and Oracle are expected to raise billions of dollars to fund purchases of advanced AI chips. Australian data centre operator Firmus shelved its planned $5 billion IPO, citing market volatility.

Market Reaction

US Treasury yields edged higher after falling on Thursday. European borrowing costs eased following a sharp selloff. France’s 10-year bond premium over German debt stood at around 136 basis points.

The euro traded at $1.123, heading for a fifth consecutive weekly decline. Gold gained more than 1% to around $4,191 an ounce.

Why It Matters for Traders

Lower oil prices may ease inflation fears, but energy costs, government borrowing and heavy AI investment remain key risks. Higher yields could pressure stock valuations, particularly in technology.

Traders will monitor Middle East developments, oil’s next move, French bond spreads and whether AI investment plans deliver the earnings investors expect.

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Source: Reuters

Time: 4:00 PM EEST